Army +18.5 2.2% play

Huge game here for Army, and they have by far had a tougher schedule than Air force.  Army is playing power 5 schools from the ACC and SEC, and also have arguably the best G5 team in Troy on their schedule. That’s no excuse for losing to Umass 14-21, but Umass did get an extra week to prepare.  I expect a quick game here, and much like when we took Navy + the points that game was a lot closer than the 17-6 final.  These teams know how to defend each other, and I expect Air Force to have more trouble moving the ball than they are used to.  14 of Air Force’s points against Navy came on a broke play, and a key pick six off a tipped ball.  This is just a lot of points in a game where you have 70%+ run, 128th and 127th seconds per play, 112th and 108th explosive offenses.  Army 31st in turnover percentage so it’s going to be very difficult in my opinion for Air Force to win this game by 3 TDs.